Walsall vs Oldham Athletic result: 3-0 as Oldham Athletic were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Walsall 3-0 Oldham Athletic. We tipped Oldham Athletic at 44.1% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
League Two sees Walsall face Oldham Athletic at Bescot Stadium. The model makes Oldham Athletic the favourite, assigning a narrow 44.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Walsall 26.1%, draw 29.7%, Oldham Athletic 44.1%.
Walsall have generated 1.15 goals per game (0.92x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.99 conceded per game. Oldham Athletic average 1.40 scored (1.12x average) and are a steady defence at 1.23 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Walsall and 1 for Oldham Athletic.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 60.5%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (47%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Oldham Athletic to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44.1% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.