Rotherham United vs Newport County result: 2-2 as Rotherham United were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Rotherham United 2-2 Newport County. We tipped Rotherham United at 46.8% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
League Two sees Rotherham United face Newport County at AESSEAL New York Stadium. The model makes Rotherham United the favourite, assigning a slight 46.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Rotherham United 46.8%, draw 25.7%, Newport County 27.4%.
Rotherham United have generated 1.04 goals per game (0.83x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.67 conceded per game. Newport County average 1.15 scored (0.91x average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Rotherham United and 1.4 for Newport County.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54.8%).
Verdict: Rotherham United to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.8% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.