Rochdale vs Grimsby Town result: 2-2 as Grimsby Town were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Rochdale 2-2 Grimsby Town. We tipped Grimsby Town at 53.9% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
League Two sees Rochdale face Grimsby Town at Crown Oil Arena. The model makes Grimsby Town the favourite, assigning a slight 53.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Rochdale 17.7%, draw 28.4%, Grimsby Town 53.9%.
Rochdale have generated 1.22 goals per game (0.98x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Grimsby Town average 1.39 scored (1.11x average) and are a steady defence at 1.18 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Rochdale and 1.3 for Grimsby Town.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Grimsby Town to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 53.9% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.