Northampton Town vs Tranmere Rovers result: 0-1 as Northampton Town were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Northampton Town 0-1 Tranmere Rovers. We tipped Northampton Town at 45.4% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
League Two sees Northampton Town face Tranmere Rovers at Sixfields Stadium. The model makes Northampton Town the favourite, assigning a slight 45.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Northampton Town 45.4%, draw 27.8%, Tranmere Rovers 26.8%.
Northampton Town have generated 0.72 goals per game (0.58x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.77 conceded per game. Tranmere Rovers average 1.13 scored (0.90x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.57 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for Northampton Town and 0.6 for Tranmere Rovers.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 77.3%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 31.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Northampton Town to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 45.4% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.