Gillingham vs Port Vale result: 1-1 as Port Vale were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Gillingham 1-1 Port Vale. We tipped Port Vale at 51.4% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
League Two sees Gillingham face Port Vale at Priestfield Stadium. The model makes Port Vale the favourite, assigning a slight 51.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Gillingham 19.3%, draw 29.3%, Port Vale 51.4%.
Gillingham have generated 1.28 goals per game (1.02x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.47 conceded per game. Port Vale average 0.65 scored (0.52x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.94 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Gillingham and 0.7 for Port Vale.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 74.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 34.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Port Vale to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.4% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.