Exeter City vs Crewe Alexandra result: 2-0 as Exeter City were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Exeter City 2-0 Crewe Alexandra. We tipped Exeter City at 37.5% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
League Two sees Exeter City face Crewe Alexandra at St James Park. The model makes Exeter City the favourite, assigning a narrow 37.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Exeter City 37.5%, draw 27%, Crewe Alexandra 35.5%.
Exeter City have generated 0.53 goals per game (0.42x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.51 conceded per game. Crewe Alexandra average 1.35 scored (1.08x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.06 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.5 for Exeter City and 0.5 for Crewe Alexandra.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 92.2%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 16.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Exeter City to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 37.5% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.