Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury Town result: 2-3 as Shrewsbury Town were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Crawley Town 2-3 Shrewsbury Town. We tipped Shrewsbury Town at 44% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
League Two sees Crawley Town face Shrewsbury Town at Broadfield Stadium. The model makes Shrewsbury Town the favourite, assigning a narrow 44% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Crawley Town 27.5%, draw 28.5%, Shrewsbury Town 44%.
Crawley Town have generated 0.91 goals per game (0.73x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.54 conceded per game. Shrewsbury Town average 0.93 scored (0.74x average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Crawley Town and 1 for Shrewsbury Town.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 64.4%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 44.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Shrewsbury Town to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.