Chesterfield vs Colchester United result: 1-1 as Chesterfield were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Chesterfield 1-1 Colchester United. We tipped Chesterfield at 71.2% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
League Two sees Chesterfield face Colchester United at SMH Group Stadium. The model makes Chesterfield the favourite, assigning a clear 71.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Chesterfield 71.2%, draw 17.7%, Colchester United 11.1%.
Chesterfield have generated 1.47 goals per game (1.17x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.22 conceded per game. Colchester United average 1.11 scored (0.89x average) and are a steady defence at 1.13 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Chesterfield and 1 for Colchester United.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 55.4%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (49.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Chesterfield to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 71.2% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.