Cheltenham Town vs Fleetwood Town result: 4-2 as Fleetwood Town were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Cheltenham Town 4-2 Fleetwood Town. We tipped Fleetwood Town at 51.6% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
League Two sees Cheltenham Town face Fleetwood Town at The Completely-Suzuki Stadium. The model makes Fleetwood Town the favourite, assigning a slight 51.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Cheltenham Town 19.8%, draw 28.6%, Fleetwood Town 51.6%.
Cheltenham Town have generated 1.38 goals per game (1.10x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.80 conceded per game. Fleetwood Town average 1.14 scored (0.91x average) and are a steady defence at 1.13 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Cheltenham Town and 1.5 for Fleetwood Town.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (59.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Fleetwood Town to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.6% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.