Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg prediction: Grazer AK to win 2-1 as model gives 39.4% chance

Austrian Bundesliga sees Grazer AK face TSV Hartberg at Merkur Arena. The model makes Grazer AK the favourite, assigning a narrow 39.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Grazer AK 39.4%, draw 26.6%, TSV Hartberg 34%.

Grazer AK have generated 1.12 goals per game (0.75x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.80 conceded per game. TSV Hartberg average 1.47 scored (0.98x average) and are a steady defence at 1.65 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Grazer AK and 1.6 for TSV Hartberg.

On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 57.1%), and both teams are likely to score (61%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.

Verdict: Grazer AK to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 39.4% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.

Head-to-head & form · More predictions · Austrian Bundesliga