SK Sturm Graz vs SV Josko Ried prediction: SK Sturm Graz to win 2-0 as model gives 59% chance

Austrian Bundesliga sees SK Sturm Graz face SV Josko Ried at Merkur Arena. The model makes SK Sturm Graz the favourite, assigning a slight 59% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is SK Sturm Graz 59%, draw 24%, SV Josko Ried 17%.

SK Sturm Graz have generated 1.79 goals per game (1.20x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.08 conceded per game. SV Josko Ried average 1.52 scored (1.02x average) and are a steady defence at 1.48 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2 for SK Sturm Graz and 1 for SV Josko Ried.

On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 57.2%), and both teams are likely to score (55.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 1-1, 2-0, 2-1 the leading candidates.

Verdict: SK Sturm Graz to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 59% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.

Head-to-head & form · More predictions · Austrian Bundesliga