Wolfsberger vs WSG Swarovski Tirol prediction: Wolfsberger to win 2-1 as model gives 40.7% chance

Austrian Bundesliga sees Wolfsberger face WSG Swarovski Tirol at Lavanttal-Arena. The model makes Wolfsberger the favourite, assigning a narrow 40.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Wolfsberger 40.7%, draw 27.5%, WSG Swarovski Tirol 31.8%.

Wolfsberger have generated 1.01 goals per game (0.70x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.70 conceded per game. WSG Swarovski Tirol average 1.18 scored (0.82x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.74 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Wolfsberger and 1.3 for WSG Swarovski Tirol.

On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 2-1 the leading candidates.

Verdict: Wolfsberger to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 40.7% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.

Head-to-head & form · More predictions · Austrian Bundesliga