Cádiz vs Ceuta prediction: Cádiz to win 1-0 as model gives 51.7% chance
LaLiga 2 sees Cádiz face Ceuta at Nuevo Mirandilla. The model makes Cádiz the favourite, assigning a slight 51.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Cádiz 51.7%, draw 24.7%, Ceuta 23.6%.
Cádiz have generated 1.04 goals per game (0.78x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.47 conceded per game. Ceuta average 1.09 scored (0.81x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.82 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Cádiz and 1.1 for Ceuta.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (53.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Cádiz to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.7% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.