Mallorca vs Cádiz prediction: Mallorca to win 1-0 as model gives 70.9% chance
LaLiga 2 sees Mallorca face Cádiz at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. The model makes Mallorca the favourite, assigning a clear 70.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Mallorca 70.9%, draw 19%, Cádiz 10.1%.
Mallorca have generated 1.17 goals per game (0.87x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.57 conceded per game. Cádiz average 1.16 scored (0.86x average) and are a steady defence at 1.44 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Mallorca and 0.4 for Cádiz.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 71.9%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 28%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0, 0-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Mallorca to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 70.9% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.