Eibar vs Almería prediction: Almería to win 1-2 as model gives 43.6% chance
LaLiga 2 sees Eibar face Almería at Ipurua. The model makes Almería the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Eibar 27.3%, draw 29.1%, Almería 43.6%.
Eibar have generated 1.57 goals per game (1.16x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.07 conceded per game. Almería average 1.92 scored (1.42x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.18 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Eibar and 1.4 for Almería.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 55.3%), and both teams are likely to score (59.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Almería to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.6% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.