Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad II prediction: Las Palmas to win 2-1 as model gives 41.5% chance
LaLiga 2 sees Las Palmas face Real Sociedad II at Estadio Gran Canaria. The model makes Las Palmas the favourite, assigning a narrow 41.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Las Palmas 41.5%, draw 29.4%, Real Sociedad II 29%.
Las Palmas have generated 1.31 goals per game (0.98x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.53 conceded per game. Real Sociedad II average 1.29 scored (0.96x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.86 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2 for Las Palmas and 1.3 for Real Sociedad II.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 65.3%), and both teams are likely to score (64.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Las Palmas to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 41.5% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.