Leganés vs Mallorca prediction: Mallorca to win 0-1 as model gives 52.1% chance
LaLiga 2 sees Leganés face Mallorca at Estadio Municipal de Butarque. The model makes Mallorca the favourite, assigning a slight 52.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Leganés 23.2%, draw 24.7%, Mallorca 52.1%.
Leganés have generated 0.76 goals per game (0.57x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.48 conceded per game. Mallorca average 1.19 scored (0.89x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.51 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.3 for Leganés and 1.2 for Mallorca.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 80.5%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 20.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-1, 0-0, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Mallorca to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 52.1% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.