Granada vs Real Valladolid prediction: Granada to win 2-1 as model gives 43.9% chance
LaLiga 2 sees Granada face Real Valladolid at Nuevo Estadio de Los Cármenes. The model makes Granada the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Granada 43.9%, draw 28.2%, Real Valladolid 27.9%.
Granada have generated 1.42 goals per game (1.06x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.36 conceded per game. Real Valladolid average 1.33 scored (0.99x average) and are a steady defence at 1.44 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Granada and 1.2 for Real Valladolid.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56.1%), and both teams are likely to score (59.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Granada to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.9% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.