Granada vs Cádiz prediction: Granada to win 2-1 as model gives 49.1% chance
LaLiga 2 sees Granada face Cádiz at Nuevo Estadio de Los Cármenes. The model makes Granada the favourite, assigning a slight 49.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Granada 49.1%, draw 26.1%, Cádiz 24.8%.
Granada have generated 1.38 goals per game (1.04x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.45 conceded per game. Cádiz average 1.11 scored (0.83x average) and are a steady defence at 1.43 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Granada and 1.1 for Cádiz.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Granada to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49.1% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.