Leganés vs Córdoba prediction: Leganés narrow favourites at 45.5%
LaLiga 2 sees Leganés face Córdoba at Estadio Municipal de Butarque. The model makes Leganés the favourite, assigning a slight 45.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Leganés 45.5%, draw 25.2%, Córdoba 29.2%.
Leganés have generated 0.81 goals per game (0.61x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.51 conceded per game. Córdoba average 1.46 scored (1.09x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.84 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Leganés and 1.5 for Córdoba.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (56.9%).
Verdict: Leganés to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 45.5% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.