Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum prediction: VfL Bochum narrow favourites at 47.9%
2. Bundesliga sees Energie Cottbus face VfL Bochum at Stadion Der Freundschaft. The model makes VfL Bochum the favourite, assigning a slight 47.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Energie Cottbus 21.3%, draw 30.8%, VfL Bochum 47.9%.
Energie Cottbus have generated 1.80 goals per game (1.21x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.93 conceded per game. VfL Bochum average 1.03 scored (0.70x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.26 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Energie Cottbus and 1.2 for VfL Bochum.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 55.9%), and both teams are likely to score (58.8%).
Verdict: VfL Bochum to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.9% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.