St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg prediction: St. Pauli to win 1-0 as model gives 45.3% chance
2. Bundesliga sees St. Pauli face 1. FC Nürnberg at Millerntor-Stadion. The model makes St. Pauli the favourite, assigning a slight 45.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is St. Pauli 45.3%, draw 25.7%, 1. FC Nürnberg 29%.
St. Pauli have generated 1.18 goals per game (0.80x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.91 conceded per game. 1. FC Nürnberg average 1.89 scored (1.28x average) and are a steady defence at 1.35 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for St. Pauli and 1.1 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 60.8%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (47.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: St. Pauli to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 45.3% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.