VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg prediction: VfL Wolfsburg to win 1-2 as model gives 53.8% chance
2. Bundesliga sees VfL Bochum face VfL Wolfsburg at Vonovia Ruhrstadion. The model makes VfL Wolfsburg the favourite, assigning a slight 53.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is VfL Bochum 19.9%, draw 26.3%, VfL Wolfsburg 53.8%.
VfL Bochum have generated 1.03 goals per game (0.68x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.28 conceded per game. VfL Wolfsburg average 2.87 scored (1.91x average) and are a steady defence at 1.72 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for VfL Bochum and 2.2 for VfL Wolfsburg.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 68.2%), and both teams are likely to score (66.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: VfL Wolfsburg to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 53.8% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Christian Eriksen leaves Wolfsburg by mutual consent after on-field collapse — Christian Eriksen has agreed to terminate his contract with German club Wolfsburg, nearly four months after the Danish midfielder collapsed on the field for the second time in his career, the team said Wednesday. (ESPN, 2026-09-23)