SV Darmstadt 98 vs St. Pauli prediction: St. Pauli to win 0-1 as model gives 48.7% chance
2. Bundesliga sees SV Darmstadt 98 face St. Pauli at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor. The model makes St. Pauli the favourite, assigning a slight 48.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is SV Darmstadt 98 24%, draw 27.3%, St. Pauli 48.7%.
SV Darmstadt 98 have generated 1.29 goals per game (0.86x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.93 conceded per game. St. Pauli average 1.37 scored (0.91x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.06 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.6 for St. Pauli.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (52.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: St. Pauli to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 48.7% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.