Kocaelispor vs Caykur Rizespor prediction: Caykur Rizespor narrow favourites at 44.8%
Super Lig sees Kocaelispor face Caykur Rizespor at Yildiz Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu. The model makes Caykur Rizespor the favourite, assigning a narrow 44.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Kocaelispor 24.7%, draw 30.5%, Caykur Rizespor 44.8%.
Kocaelispor have generated 1.00 goals per game (0.70x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.08 conceded per game. Caykur Rizespor average 1.38 scored (0.97x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.72 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Kocaelispor and 0.9 for Caykur Rizespor.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 59.6%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (46.9%).
Verdict: Caykur Rizespor to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44.8% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.