Fenerbahce vs Goztepe prediction: Fenerbahce to win 2-1 as model gives 62.5% chance
Super Lig sees Fenerbahce face Goztepe at Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium. The model makes Fenerbahce the favourite, assigning a clear 62.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Fenerbahce 62.5%, draw 22.8%, Goztepe 14.7%.
Fenerbahce have generated 2.45 goals per game (1.73x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.03 conceded per game. Goztepe average 1.74 scored (1.23x average) and are a steady defence at 1.43 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.8 for Fenerbahce and 1.1 for Goztepe.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 74.8%), and both teams are likely to score (64.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 2-1, 3-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Fenerbahce to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 62.5% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Ex-Liverpool forward Kuyt named Fenerbahçe interim coach — Former Netherlands striker Dirk Kuyt has been appointed as interim coach of Fenerbahce. (ESPN, 2026-10-28)
- Post-match chaos sours Victor Osimhen brace in Galatasaray win over Fenerbahce — Victor Osimhen warned of chaos ahead of Monday's Istanbul derby against Fenerbahce, and it duly arrived after the final whistle, as the Nigeria striker scored both goals in Galatasaray's 2-1 victory. (ESPN, 2026-10-27)
- Galatasaray's Victor Osimhen bracing for 'chaos' in Istanbul derby against Fenerbahce — Victor Osimhen is bracing for chaos in Monday's Istanbul derby against Fenerbahce, with the Nigeria striker hoping for a victory that would move Galatasaray six points clear of their rivals in the Turkish Super Lig title race. (ESPN, 2026-10-26)
- Mason Greenwood goal in vain as Fenerbahce held by Slavia Prague — Mason Greenwood scored a superb half-volley for Fenerbahce before Pavel Kacor matched him with a sensational last-minute equaliser for Slavia Prague in the Champions League on Tuesday. (ESPN, 2026-10-21)
- Fenerbahce coach returns to work after resignation confusion — Fenerbahce coach Ismail Kartal returned to his duties on Saturday, contradicting media reports from the day before suggesting his resignation was final. (ESPN, 2026-09-12)
- Fenerbahçe coach Kartal misses training despite club blocking resignation — Fenerbahçe coach Ismail Kartal announced his shock resignation after the 1-1 draw against Roma, but club president Aziz Yildirim said the coach remains in his position. (ESPN, 2026-09-11)