Genclerbirligi vs Alanyaspor prediction: Genclerbirligi to win 1-0 as model gives 37.1% chance
Super Lig sees Genclerbirligi face Alanyaspor at Eryaman Stadium. The model makes Genclerbirligi the favourite, assigning a narrow 37.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Genclerbirligi 37.1%, draw 26.5%, Alanyaspor 36.4%.
Genclerbirligi have generated 0.88 goals per game (0.61x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.72 conceded per game. Alanyaspor average 1.12 scored (0.78x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.29 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Genclerbirligi and 1.2 for Alanyaspor.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 65.6%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 42.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Genclerbirligi to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 37.1% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.