Istanbul Basaksehir vs Samsunspor prediction: Istanbul Basaksehir to win 2-0 as model gives 59.7% chance
Super Lig sees Istanbul Basaksehir face Samsunspor at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. The model makes Istanbul Basaksehir the favourite, assigning a slight 59.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Istanbul Basaksehir 59.7%, draw 23.6%, Samsunspor 16.7%.
Istanbul Basaksehir have generated 1.53 goals per game (1.08x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.32 conceded per game. Samsunspor average 1.13 scored (0.80x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.95 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.4 for Istanbul Basaksehir and 1 for Samsunspor.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 64.3%), and both teams are likely to score (56.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 2-1, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Istanbul Basaksehir to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 59.7% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.