Kasimpasa vs Besiktas prediction: Besiktas to win 1-2 as model gives 67.5% chance
Super Lig sees Kasimpasa face Besiktas at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium. The model makes Besiktas the favourite, assigning a clear 67.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Kasimpasa 8.2%, draw 24.3%, Besiktas 67.5%.
Kasimpasa have generated 1.33 goals per game (0.94x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.24 conceded per game. Besiktas average 1.83 scored (1.30x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.12 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Kasimpasa and 1.5 for Besiktas.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Besiktas to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 67.5% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.