Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce prediction: Galatasaray to win 2-1 as model gives 49.7% chance
Super Lig sees Galatasaray face Fenerbahce at RAMS Park. The model makes Galatasaray the favourite, assigning a slight 49.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Galatasaray 49.7%, draw 24.3%, Fenerbahce 26%.
Galatasaray have generated 2.13 goals per game (1.52x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.18 conceded per game. Fenerbahce average 2.57 scored (1.84x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.95 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Galatasaray and 1.9 for Fenerbahce.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 69.1%), and both teams are likely to score (69.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Galatasaray to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49.7% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Mason Greenwood goal in vain as Fenerbahce held by Slavia Prague — Mason Greenwood scored a superb half-volley for Fenerbahce before Pavel Kacor matched him with a sensational last-minute equaliser for Slavia Prague in the Champions League on Tuesday. (ESPN, 2026-10-21)
- Fenerbahce coach returns to work after resignation confusion — Fenerbahce coach Ismail Kartal returned to his duties on Saturday, contradicting media reports from the day before suggesting his resignation was final. (ESPN, 2026-09-12)
- Fenerbahçe coach Kartal misses training despite club blocking resignation — Fenerbahçe coach Ismail Kartal announced his shock resignation after the 1-1 draw against Roma, but club president Aziz Yildirim said the coach remains in his position. (ESPN, 2026-09-11)
- Fenerbahce's Mattéo Guendouzi banned for two Champions League matches after Lyon clashes — Mattéo Guendouzi was banned by UEFA from Fenerbahce's first two Champions League games for provocations and insults in a heated playoff win at Lyon in his native France. (ESPN, 2026-09-05)
- Fenerbahce: Mason Greenwood, Matteo Guendouzi subject of UEFA investigation — Mason Greenwood and Matteo Guendouzi are the subject of a disciplinary investigation by UEFA, Fenerbahce have confirmed. (ESPN, 2026-09-03)
- Barcelona confirm signing of Croatia goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic — Barcelona have confirmed the signing of Croatia goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic from Turkish club Fenerbahçe (ESPN, 2026-08-27)