Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor prediction: Alanyaspor to win 1-0 as model gives 55.3% chance
Super Lig sees Alanyaspor face Kocaelispor at Kirbiyik Holding Stadyumu. The model makes Alanyaspor the favourite, assigning a slight 55.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Alanyaspor 55.3%, draw 23.9%, Kocaelispor 20.8%.
Alanyaspor have generated 1.13 goals per game (0.80x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.23 conceded per game. Kocaelispor average 0.91 scored (0.65x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.08 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for Alanyaspor and 0.7 for Kocaelispor.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 75.8%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 33.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Alanyaspor to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55.3% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.