Erzurum BB vs Çorum FK prediction: Çorum FK to win 1-2 as model gives 44% chance
Super Lig sees Erzurum BB face Çorum FK at Erzurum Kazim Karabekir. The model makes Çorum FK the favourite, assigning a narrow 44% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Erzurum BB 27.2%, draw 28.8%, Çorum FK 44%.
Erzurum BB have generated 1.00 goals per game (0.70x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.19 conceded per game. Çorum FK average 1.97 scored (1.39x average) and are a steady defence at 1.60 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Erzurum BB and 1.5 for Çorum FK.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (57.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Çorum FK to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.