Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs tipped to edge it (58.5%)
Toronto hold a narrow lead in the standings and avoid further injury concerns ahead of this meeting with a Buffalo side that has lost its captain to an upper-body issue.
Toronto Maple Leafs sit two places above Buffalo Sabres in the overall table after five games and will host them at Scotiabank Arena with a slight edge in the probabilities. The home side have played one more match yet carry a record of 3-2-1 compared with Buffalo's 3-3-0, a difference that stems from one extra overtime point rather than any dominant run of results.
Toronto's recent matches and standing
Toronto have collected three wins from their last five outings and sit 17th overall after an early-season schedule that has mixed results with a handful of narrow victories. Their latest result was a win that leaves them needing to build consistency across the full sixty minutes rather than relying on late surges.
The projection sees their home position and marginally superior record as the main drivers behind a 58.5 per cent chance of victory. That figure places them as a slight favourite without suggesting any overwhelming control of the contest.
Buffalo's form and team news
Buffalo enter with two wins from their last five matches and occupy 20th place after six games. Their most recent outing ended in defeat, leaving them one point behind Toronto despite having played the same number of regulation decisions.
ESPN reports that captain Rasmus Dahlin will miss this fixture and remains day-to-day with an upper-body injury sustained in the previous game. Line-ups otherwise remain unconfirmed and both benches will likely name close to full-strength groups beyond that absence.
Where the probabilities point
The model assigns Buffalo a 41.5 per cent chance of an away win, a mark that sits close to a coin flip once the home advantage is stripped out. No strong trends in expected goals or special-teams edges appear in the data, so the narrow gap rests mainly on Toronto's slight table advantage and the benefit of playing at Scotiabank Arena.
Bookmaker lines align closely with these percentages and show little value in chasing the draw market that sits at zero probability in a game expected to produce a winner.
Closing assessment
Toronto Maple Leafs to win at 58.5 per cent carries slight favourite confidence. The narrow table lead and home ice supply the clearest separation between the sides. The main way the outcome flips is if Buffalo exploit any early looseness from Toronto while adapting to the loss of Dahlin. Goals markets offer no separate signal beyond the low probability attached to a stalemate.
Reporting referenced: ESPN.
Team news
- Sabres' Dahlin out Tuesday vs. Canadiens due to upper-body injury — Sabres captain Rasmus Dahlin will miss Tuesday's matchup against the Canadiens and is day-to-day after suffering an upper-body injury in Monday's win over the Panthers. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- Carolina Hurricanes troll Flyers, Eagles, Phillies after Sunday's victory — Neither the Eagles nor Phillies were spared by the Hurricanes' social media team Sunday night. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- NHL Power Rankings: Each team's NHL Rank representatives — It's the first regular-season update of our 1-32 poll. Plus, how many players did each team land among the Top 100? (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- NHL Tonight: Golden Knights, Wild pair off in early-season Western showdown — With just three games on the NHL calendar Monday, here are game previews, betting lines, updated stat leaders and more. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- NHL Tonight: Previews, stats, betting info for Saturday's 14 games — It's a typically massive slate, from 1 p.m. ET all the way through two 10 p.m. starts. Get prepared here. (ESPN, 2026-10-10)
- NHL breakout tiers: Top players ready to level up in 2026-27 — From players with new linemates to young stars set to hit superstardom to enticing rookies, watch out for this group. (ESPN, 2026-10-09)