Levadiakos vs Aris prediction: Aris to win 0-1 as model gives 54.3% chance
Greek Super League sees Levadiakos face Aris at Levadia Municipal Stadium. The model makes Aris the favourite, assigning a slight 54.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Levadiakos 18.6%, draw 27.1%, Aris 54.3%.
Levadiakos have generated 0.87 goals per game (0.65x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.39 conceded per game. Aris average 1.50 scored (1.12x average) and are a steady defence at 1.33 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for Levadiakos and 1.4 for Aris.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 57.8%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-1, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Aris to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 54.3% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.