Asteras Tripoli vs Levadiakos prediction: Asteras Tripoli to win 1-0 as model gives 55.6% chance
Greek Super League sees Asteras Tripoli face Levadiakos at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium. The model makes Asteras Tripoli the favourite, assigning a slight 55.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Asteras Tripoli 55.6%, draw 23.1%, Levadiakos 21.3%.
Asteras Tripoli have generated 1.06 goals per game (0.82x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.67 conceded per game. Levadiakos average 0.94 scored (0.73x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.51 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Asteras Tripoli and 1.1 for Levadiakos.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 55.1%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (51.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Asteras Tripoli to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55.6% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.