PAOK vs Iraklis prediction: PAOK to win 1-0 as model gives 90.6% chance
Greek Super League sees PAOK face Iraklis at Toumba Stadium. The model makes PAOK the favourite, assigning a strong 90.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is PAOK 90.6%, draw 6.4%, Iraklis 3%.
PAOK have generated 1.89 goals per game (1.48x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.12 conceded per game. Iraklis average 1.04 scored (0.81x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.90 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for PAOK and 0.8 for Iraklis.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 59.2%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 45%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: PAOK to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 90.6% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.