Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets result: 117-135 as Dallas Mavericks were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Dallas Mavericks 117-135 Houston Rockets. We tipped Dallas Mavericks at 51% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Dallas hold a narrow edge over Houston in the NBA China Game despite both sides starting the season from identical records.
The opening NBA China Game pits two teams with identical 0-0 records against each other at the Venetian Arena. Dallas sit 17th in the league table while Houston occupy 18th, yet the projection gives the Mavericks the slightest of advantages in a contest that offers little separation on paper.
Arrival and early season context
Both sides enter with no games played in the 2026-27 campaign. The Mavericks and Rockets therefore bring only preseason preparation and roster changes into this neutral-venue meeting.
ESPN's Basketball Power Index places the two clubs in close proximity among the 30 teams, underlining how little separates them before the regular schedule begins. This positioning suggests the outcome will hinge more on individual match-ups than on established form.
Selection and availability updates
Kyrie Irving has received clearance to return without restrictions after his long recovery from a torn left ACL, according to Yahoo Sports. Coach Dusty May has indicated Irving will feature in the China Games, giving Dallas a key back-court presence that was absent for most of last season.
Line-ups otherwise remain unconfirmed at this stage. Houston have made organisational changes aimed at development, but no specific roster details have emerged ahead of the contest.
Projection breakdown
Our numbers assign Dallas a 51% chance of victory and Houston 49%, a margin that describes a marginal favourite close to a coin flip. The probabilities leave almost no room for a draw in this setting.
The narrow spread reflects the teams' similar table positions and the absence of any meaningful season record to differentiate them. Small edges in individual availability therefore carry extra weight in the model.
The pick is Dallas Mavericks to win at 51% as a marginal favourite close to a coin flip. The clearest supporting factor remains Irving's availability for his first action in over a year. The result tilts the other way if Houston exploit any rust in Dallas's returning players. No separate market data on totals or spreads alters the primary outcome call.
Reporting referenced: Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports.
Team news
- 2026 NBA free agency: Grades for offseason signings, extensions — We're grading the biggest free agent signings and extensions, including Jalen Duren's new five-year deal. (ESPN, 2026-10-10)
- What does your NBA team need? The biggest hole on all 30 rosters — Every NBA team is missing something, even the leading title contenders. (ESPN, 2026-10-08)
- Rockets, Mavs take China: Highlights, top scenes from off the court — The top sights and sounds from the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets' preseason trip to China. (ESPN, 2026-10-08)
- Basketball Power Index: NBA projections, playoff chances for 2026-27 season — ESPN's Basketball Power Index projections for the 2026-27 NBA season are out, including a ranking of all 30 teams. (ESPN, 2026-10-07)
- NBA preview 2026-27: Five coaches facing the most pressure to win — Which coaches could face the most scrutiny this season? Ben Golliver examines what lies ahead for five with Finals aspirations. (ESPN, 2026-10-01)
- NBA preview 2026-27: What Bobby Marks is watching at 30 training camps — As training camps get underway across the league, Bobby Marks examines roster, contract and fit questions for all 30 teams. (ESPN, 2026-09-30)