Al Fateh vs Al Shabab result: 1-3 as Al Shabab were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Al Fateh 1-3 Al Shabab. We tipped Al Shabab at 50.1% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Saudi Pro League sees Al Fateh face Al Shabab at Al Fateh Club Stadium. The model makes Al Shabab the favourite, assigning a slight 50.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Al Fateh 21.5%, draw 28.4%, Al Shabab 50.1%.
Al Fateh have generated 1.09 goals per game (0.75x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.80 conceded per game. Al Shabab average 1.38 scored (0.95x average) and are a steady defence at 1.60 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Al Fateh and 1.5 for Al Shabab.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (59.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Al Shabab to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 50.1% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.