Al Shabab vs Al Ahli prediction: Al Ahli to win 1-2 as model gives 60.8% chance
Saudi Pro League sees Al Shabab face Al Ahli at Al-Shabab Club Stadium. The model makes Al Ahli the favourite, assigning a clear 60.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Al Shabab 16%, draw 23.2%, Al Ahli 60.8%.
Al Shabab have generated 1.49 goals per game (0.99x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.56 conceded per game. Al Ahli average 2.57 scored (1.69x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.06 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Al Shabab and 2.4 for Al Ahli.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 68.8%), and both teams are likely to score (63.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-2, 1-1, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Al Ahli to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 60.8% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
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- Who is Newcastle-linked Matthias Jaissle, the favourite to succeed Eddie Howe at St James' Park? — Al Ahli head coach Matthias Jaissle is reportedly set to replace Eddie Howe at Newcastle. But who is he? (ESPN, 2026-10-02)
- Ivan Toney pleads not guilty to Soho nightclub assault charge — England striker Ivan Toney has denied assaulting a man at a Soho nightclub as he appeared in court to face the charge for the first time. (ESPN, 2026-10-01)
- Ivan Toney court hearing over alleged Soho assault charge delayed — England striker Ivan Toney's first court hearing over an alleged assault at a Soho nightclub has been delayed for a week. (ESPN, 2026-09-24)
- Mamelodi Sundowns vs. Al-Ahli - Kick-off time, how to watch Intercontinental Cup clash — African champions Mamelodi Sundowns will host Saudi Pro League giants and Asian champions Al-Ahli at Loftus Versfeld in a FIFA Intercontinental Cup clash on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-09-18)