Al Hazem vs Al Fayha result: 2-2 as Al Hazem were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Al Hazem 2-2 Al Fayha. We tipped Al Hazem at 47% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Saudi Pro League sees Al Hazem face Al Fayha at Al-Hazm Club Stadium. The model makes Al Hazem the favourite, assigning a slight 47% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Al Hazem 47%, draw 26.6%, Al Fayha 26.4%.
Al Hazem have generated 1.07 goals per game (0.73x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.52 conceded per game. Al Fayha average 1.09 scored (0.75x average) and are a steady defence at 1.65 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Al Hazem and 1 for Al Fayha.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 57.6%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (49%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Al Hazem to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.