Al Qadsiah vs Abha prediction: Al Qadsiah to win 3-0 as model gives 88.9% chance
Saudi Pro League sees Al Qadsiah face Abha at Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium. The model makes Al Qadsiah the favourite, assigning a strong 88.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Al Qadsiah 88.9%, draw 8.2%, Abha 3%.
Al Qadsiah have generated 2.61 goals per game (1.79x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Abha average 0.70 scored (0.48x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.81 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 3.2 for Al Qadsiah and 0.4 for Abha.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 70.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 34.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 3-0, with 3-0, 2-0, 4-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Al Qadsiah to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 88.9% confidence. A 3-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Tijjani Reijnders completes transfer to Saudi Pro League's Al Qadsiah from Man City — Tijjani Reijnders has completed a move to Saudi Pro League club Al Qadsiah from Manchester City, just 12 months after joining the Premier League club. (ESPN, 2026-08-19)
- Sources: Reijnders exits Manchester City for £52M Saudi move — Manchester City have agreed a deal with Al Qadsiah for midfielder Tijjani Reijnders, sources have told ESPN. (ESPN, 2026-08-13)