Al Hazem vs Al Fateh prediction: Al Hazem to win 1-0 as model gives 49.3% chance
Saudi Pro League sees Al Hazem face Al Fateh at Al-Hazm Club Stadium. The model makes Al Hazem the favourite, assigning a slight 49.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Al Hazem 49.3%, draw 26%, Al Fateh 24.7%.
Al Hazem have generated 1.08 goals per game (0.74x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.44 conceded per game. Al Fateh average 0.88 scored (0.61x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.69 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Al Hazem and 0.8 for Al Fateh.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 62.5%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 42.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0, 1-1, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Al Hazem to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49.3% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.