New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors prediction: New York Knicks tipped to edge it (59%)
New York Knicks hold a narrow edge over Toronto Raptors at Madison Square Garden despite early-season stumbles and contract uncertainty around Karl-Anthony Towns.
The New York Knicks enter this matchup at the foot of the Eastern Conference after two defeats, while the Toronto Raptors sit one place higher with a single win from their opening pair of fixtures. Both sides have shown inconsistent results so far, yet the probabilities still tilt toward the home team by a modest margin.
Early season records and recent results
New York hold a season record of 0-2 and sit 28th of 30 teams. Their last two outings produced defeats in each case. Toronto stand at 1-1 overall and occupy 25th position after alternating a win with a loss.
Those positions reflect limited sample sizes rather than settled patterns, but the Knicks have yet to secure a victory while the Raptors have at least claimed one. The home side therefore need a reversal of form at Madison Square Garden to climb the table.
Contract talks and team preparation
Karl-Anthony Towns learned through media reports that the Knicks had paused extension discussions with him and Josh Hart until later in the season. He described the development as news to him and said he felt very disappointed. ESPN reported his reaction directly after practice, while Yahoo Sports noted that Carmelo Anthony viewed the pause as the correct step to keep everyone focused on basketball.
Line-ups remain unconfirmed ahead of tip-off. The reporting centres on the front office decision rather than any fresh injury concerns, so attention stays on how the players respond on the court once the game begins.
Probabilities and decisive areas
Our numbers place New York at 59% to win and Toronto at 41%, with a draw rated at 0%. The projection therefore marks the Knicks as a slight favourite on their own floor. The main weight behind that assessment rests on home status and the narrow gap in the underlying ratings, even though both records remain modest.
A Toronto victory would most likely occur if the visitors exploit any lingering distraction from the contract news and capitalise on transition opportunities. The betting markets align closely with the 59-41 split and offer limited value on the underdog.
The pick is New York Knicks to win. The 59% probability marks them a slight favourite. Home advantage and the slightly better underlying metrics carry the greatest weight in the projection. The outcome turns if Toronto capitalise on any off-court noise in New York. The probabilities leave little room for a draw and point to a low-margin result either way.
Reporting referenced: Yahoo Sports, ESPN, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports.
Team news
- Carmelo Anthony thinks Knicks right to halt contract talks to focus on season — Former Knicks great Carmelo Anthony said the team is making the right decision in halting contract negotiations with players to focus solely on basketball. (ESPN, 2026-10-13)
- Karl-Anthony Towns 'disappointed' with Knicks tabling talks — Karl-Anthony Towns responded to the Knicks' statement that they are tabling all extension talks until later in the season, saying he was "disappointed." (ESPN, 2026-10-11)
- Knicks' Towns opens up about grief for World Mental Health Day — Karl-Anthony Towns shared his emotional journey following the death of his mother six years ago to mark World Mental Health Day on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-10-10)
- 2026 NBA free agency: Grades for offseason signings, extensions — We're grading the biggest free agent signings and extensions, including Jalen Duren's new five-year deal. (ESPN, 2026-10-10)
- Knicks tabling Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart contract talks — The Knicks have said they are tabling contract extension talks with Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart "until later in the season and will remain solely focused on preparing for the start of the season." (ESPN, 2026-10-09)
- What does your NBA team need? The biggest hole on all 30 rosters — Every NBA team is missing something, even the leading title contenders. (ESPN, 2026-10-08)