Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks prediction: Indiana Pacers tipped to edge it (55.4%)
NBA sees Indiana Pacers face Dallas Mavericks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The model makes Indiana Pacers the favourite, assigning a slight 55.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Indiana Pacers 55.4%, draw 0%, Dallas Mavericks 44.6%.
Form guides this call: Indiana Pacers are winning at a 23% clip against Dallas Mavericks's 32%, before home advantage is applied. The projected line is Indiana Pacers 1.4 – 1.3 Dallas Mavericks, based on each team's scoring and concession averages this season blended with prior form.
Verdict: Indiana Pacers to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55.4% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Kyrie Irving hounded by Rockets in return, held in check in Mavs' blowout loss — With the Rockets focused on trapping him, Kyrie Irving was held to 15 points in his first regular-season game since March 2025 and the Mavs fell 128-110. (ESPN, 2026-10-22)
- Tyrese Haliburton leads Pacers' opening-night win in emotional return from injury — An emotional Tyrese Haliburton made his long-awaited return from the Achilles tear he suffered in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals, as he led the Pacers to a gritty season-opening win over the Pelicans. (ESPN, 2026-10-22)
- Sources: Mavericks agree to two-way deal with Walter Clayton Jr. — The Mavericks agree to a two-way NBA deal with former first-round pick Walter Clayton Jr., sources told ESPN. (ESPN, 2026-10-22)
- Rockets' Tari Eason ejected after shoving Mavericks' P.J. Washington in back — Rockets reserve forward Tari Eason was ejected in the first quarter Wednesday night after shoving Mavericks forward P.J. Washington in the back. (ESPN, 2026-10-22)
- Tyrese Haliburton pays homage to Triple H's MSG outfit in return to NBA action — An avid WWE fan, Tyrese Haliburton wore a denim and leather jacket similar to the one worn by Triple H when he returned from a torn quad. (ESPN, 2026-10-22)
- NBA championship and MVP odds: Spurs, Thunder tied entering season; Wemby ahead of SGA — Each team's odds to win the NBA title, conference and division, plus MVP odds. (ESPN, 2026-10-20)