FC Porto vs Napoli prediction: FC Porto tipped to edge it (60.6%)
Champions League sees FC Porto face Napoli at Estádio do Dragão. The model makes FC Porto the favourite, assigning a clear 60.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is FC Porto 60.6%, draw 20.3%, Napoli 19.1%.
FC Porto have generated 0.71 goals per game (0.38x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.99 conceded per game. Napoli average 1.65 scored (0.88x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.29 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for FC Porto and 1.6 for Napoli.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50.4%).
Verdict: FC Porto to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 60.6% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Scott McTominay returns to Scotland squad months after undergoing heart surgery — Scott McTominay has returned to the Scotland squad for this month's Nations League double-header against North Macedonia and Switzerland. (ESPN, 2026-11-03)