Lens vs Como prediction: Como to win 0-3 as model gives 57.7% chance
Champions League sees Lens face Como at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. The model makes Como the favourite, assigning a slight 57.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Lens 18.5%, draw 23.8%, Como 57.7%.
Lens have generated 0.85 goals per game (0.45x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.37 conceded per game. Como average 3.30 scored (1.75x average) and are a steady defence at 1.70 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Lens and 3.2 for Como.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 76.9%), and both teams are likely to score (55.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-3, with 0-3, 0-2, 1-3 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Como to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 57.7% confidence. A 0-3 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Michael Carrick: I feel backing of Man United board but need to win games — Michael Carrick has said he feels the backing of the Manchester United board -- but admits it will only continue if he starts winning games. (ESPN, 2026-10-20)
- Cesc Fàbregas calls suggestions he could replace Michael Carrick at Man United disrespectful — Cesc Fabregas has dismissed suggestions he could be in line to replace Michael Carrick as disrespectful. (ESPN, 2026-10-20)
- Lisandro Martínez, Marcus Rashford miss Man United training ahead of Como clash — Lisandro Martínez and Marcus Rashford missed training ahead of the trip to Como as Manchester United's injury problems continued to mount. (ESPN, 2026-10-20)
- Como's Fàbregas: Champions League vs. Manchester United a 'dream come true' — Como coach Cesc Fabregas is excited about the "dream come true" opportunity to host Manchester United in Wednesday's Champions League group game. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)