Fenerbahce vs Liverpool prediction: Liverpool to win 1-3 as model gives 71.7% chance
Champions League sees Fenerbahce face Liverpool at Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium. The model makes Liverpool the favourite, assigning a clear 71.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Fenerbahce 7.4%, draw 20.9%, Liverpool 71.7%.
Fenerbahce have generated 1.01 goals per game (0.54x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 3.13 conceded per game. Liverpool average 3.12 scored (1.66x average) and are a steady defence at 1.85 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Fenerbahce and 3.2 for Liverpool.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 80.4%), and both teams are likely to score (65.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-3, with 1-3, 1-2, 0-3 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Liverpool to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 71.7% confidence. A 1-3 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Fenerbahce coach Dirk Kuyt ready for 'very special' reunion with Liverpool — Former Liverpool forward Dirk Kuyt will park his feelings for his old club as he has a job to do for Fenerbahce. (ESPN, 2026-11-03)
- Andoni Iraola: Liverpool have to handle Fenerbahce atmosphere — Liverpool head coach Andoni Iraola wants to "kill the confidence" Fenerbahce get from a raucous home crowd and believes improving his side's attacking output is one of the best ways. (ESPN, 2026-11-03)
- Liverpool's $500m forward line is failing. Can they turn it around? — Liverpool's star-studded, expensively assembled attack has scored fewer Premier League goals this season than Ipswich. That needs to improve immediately. (ESPN, 2026-11-03)
- Ryan Gravenberch out of Liverpool's clash with Fenerbahce with heel injury — Injury has ruled Liverpool midfielder Ryan Gravenberch out of the Champions League match against Fenerbahce in Istanbul. (ESPN, 2026-11-03)
- Noni Madueke: Alexis Mac Allister tried to 'bait me' into red card — Noni Madueke has said that Alexis Mac Allister tried to "bait" him into getting a red card during Arsenal's 1-0 win over Liverpool at Anfield. (ESPN, 2026-11-02)
- Arsenal got a big win at Liverpool, but why no Isak penalty? — Arsenal got a big win at Liverpool to go clear atop the Premier League, but Liverpool should have had a penalty. Plus: Michael Carrick's Man United future, Milan's bounce-back, Bayern's frustrations and more. (ESPN, 2026-11-02)