Bodo/Glimt vs Lille prediction: Bodo/Glimt to win 3-1 as model gives 52.6% chance
Champions League sees Bodo/Glimt face Lille at Aspmyra Stadion. The model makes Bodo/Glimt the favourite, assigning a slight 52.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Bodo/Glimt 52.6%, draw 26.3%, Lille 21.1%.
Bodo/Glimt have generated 1.63 goals per game (0.84x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.44 conceded per game. Lille average 1.33 scored (0.69x average) and are a leaky defence at 3.31 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 3.1 for Bodo/Glimt and 1.5 for Lille.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 84.1%), and both teams are likely to score (74.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 3-1, with 3-1, 2-1, 4-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Bodo/Glimt to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 52.6% confidence. A 3-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Arsenal 3-0 Lille: Gunners overcome stubborn visitors with help from the bench - as it happened — Three goals in seven minutes were enough for Arsenal to make it two wins from two in the Champions League. (ESPN, 2026-10-13)
- Olivier Giroud on leaving Arsenal: 'Toughest' decision of my career — Oliver Giroud said leaving Arsenal was the "toughest choice" of his career as he prepares to make his Emirates Stadium comeback, aged 40. (ESPN, 2026-10-13)
- Lille consider legal action after Tiago Santos ruptures ACL in tackle — Champions League club Lille said Monday they are considering legal action over an injury to defender Tiago Santos who is set to miss the rest of the season. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)