Internazionale vs Shakhtar Donetsk result: 1-0 as Internazionale were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Internazionale 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk. We tipped Internazionale at 89% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Champions League sees Internazionale face Shakhtar Donetsk at San Siro. The model makes Internazionale the favourite, assigning a strong 89% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Internazionale 89%, draw 7.4%, Shakhtar Donetsk 3.6%.
Internazionale have generated 1.85 goals per game (0.95x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.35 conceded per game. Shakhtar Donetsk average 2.09 scored (1.08x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.05 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Internazionale and 2.3 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 66%), and both teams are likely to score (61.5%).
Verdict: Internazionale to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 89% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Champions League Power Rankings before MD3: Who's No. 1? — It's time for the UEFA Champions League! It has been about six weeks since our last check-in, but our panel of experts and voters will rank the top 10 teams in the field. Where does your club rank? (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- Inter Milan rocked as captain Lautaro Martínez set to miss 7 games — Inter Milan captain Lautaro Martínez will likely miss his team's next seven matches, including the derby against city rival AC Milan, with a hamstring injury. (ESPN, 2026-10-16)
- Shakhtar's Champions League win vs. AEK was more than just a game — Shakhtar Donetsk haven't played at home since 2014 due to the war, and this season, their Champions League home games are at Chelsea's Stamford Bridge. Wednesday's win was a reminder of how absurd their situation is. (ESPN, 2026-10-16)
- Why are Shakhtar playing Champions League games at Chelsea's Stamford Bridge? — Explaining why Ukrainian side Shakhtar Donetsk will play home Champions League games at Chelsea's stadium. (ESPN, 2026-10-14)
- England's Djed Spence ready for long-awaited Inter Milan debut — England defender Djed Spence could be handed his long-awaited debut for Inter Milan against Parma on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-10-09)