Sporting CP vs LASK Linz result: 2-3 as Sporting CP were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Sporting CP 2-3 LASK Linz. We tipped Sporting CP at 73.5% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Champions League sees Sporting CP face LASK Linz at Estádio José Alvalade. The model makes Sporting CP the favourite, assigning a clear 73.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Sporting CP 73.5%, draw 18.1%, LASK Linz 8.4%.
Sporting CP have generated 1.97 goals per game (1.02x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.86 conceded per game. LASK Linz average 1.67 scored (0.86x average) and are a leaky defence at 3.79 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 3.2 for Sporting CP and 0.7 for LASK Linz.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 74.1%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (47.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 3-0, with 3-0, 2-0, 4-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Sporting CP to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 73.5% confidence. A 3-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
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